Detection of Early Warning Signals 4

TOOL 1.3

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS


Business• Problems at major suppliers 
• Major upward shift in price of key inputs (raw materials, components, utilities) or availability problems 
• Loss of key personnel 
• Major acquisition/divestment 
• Significant increase in or change in nature of competition 
• Slow sales compared to plan 
• No evidence of contracted sales 
• Small deposits 
• Price reductions/special offers 
• Oversupply in location 
• New legislation/regulations 
• Tax/fiscal changes 
• Change in economic conditions (growth/recession, exchange rates, interest rates) 
• Claims on warranties/guarantees/service agreements 
• Product quality problems 
• Legal action being taken by or against client 
• Disputes 
• Competitors/peers in problems 
• Sector specific issues (eg labour disputes) 
• Negative press/media reports 
• Rumours 
• Collapse/rapid change in share price
• Build costs overrunning budgets
• Seeking variations to planning permission 
• Delaying payments to sub contractors 
• No contingencies in the budget 
• Eating into contingency funds 
• Too many projects 
• Too big a project 
• How much marketing has to be done 
• “Gung ho” developer
Management• Changes of senior management (especially if unexpected) 
• Lack of strategic plan 
• Frequent strategy changes 
• One man show 
• Management skills/time overstretched 
• Track record of developer shows lack of experience 
• Due diligence on prime movers not undertaken with vigour 
• No evidence of full management team 
• Lack of communication with client 
• Lack of succession 
• Complex corporate structure 
• Arrogant behaviour towards funders, creditors, media 
• Unwillingness to provide information 
• Lack of openness/honesty 
• “Trophies” – new head offices, expensive sponsorships, ownership of sports teams etc. 
• Poor labour relations
• Lack of experience mix 
• Remuneration/lifestyle

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