Detection of Early Warning Signals 2

TOOL 1.1

BUSINESS/OPERATIONAL


Business• Change in the nature of the business 
• Loss of important product lines, franchises, distribution rights, sources of supply 
• Loss of a major client or contract 
• Problems at major suppliers 
• Substantial single/repeat order that will strain production capacity/working capital 
• Major downward shift in price of products 
• Major upward shift in price of key inputs (raw materials, components, utilities) or availability problems 
• Consumption changes in major markets 
• Price war 
• Loss of key personnel 
• Major acquisition/divestment 
• Significant increase in or change in nature of competition 
• New legislation/regulations 
• Tax/fiscal changes 
• Change in economic conditions (growth/recession, exchange rates, interest rates) 
• Claims on warranties/guarantees/service agreements 
• Product quality problems 
• Legal action being taken by or against client 
• Competitors/peers in problems 
• Sector specific issues (e.g. oil prices for airlines, textile import restrictions)
• Negative press/media reports 
• Rumours 
• Changes in technology affecting either manufacturing or products 
• Collapse/rapid change in share price
Factory/premises• Inefficient layout of machinery/equipment 
• Poor maintenance of machinery/equipment 
• Machinery/equipment is out of date and technologically redundant 
• Deferred replacement of outdated machinery/equipment 
• Sales or sale and leaseback of production equipment 
• Increasing downtime 
• Low staff morale/labour disputes
Working Capital• Evidence of lengthening credit terms to clients 
• Increasing inability to collect receivables 
• Discounts given are larger, more frequent 
• Speculative inventory purchases 
• Evidence of stale inventory, large inventory levels or wrong mix of inventory 
• Suppliers demanding quicker payment or cash before delivery 
• Suppliers demanding Letters of Credit/Guarantees
Management• Changes of senior management (especially if unexpected)
• Lack of strategic plan 
• Frequent strategy changes 
• One man show 
• Lack of succession 
• Complex corporate structure • Arrogant behaviour towards funders, creditors, media 
• Unwillingness to provide information 
• Lack of openness/honesty 
• “Trophies” – new head offices, expensive sponsorships, ownership of sports teams etc. 
• Poor labour relations 
• Lack of experience mix 
• Remuneration/lifestyle

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