A First Principles Analysis of Corporate Defaults: Asian Case Studies

1. Economic/Value Destruction Default

A. China

HNA Group (2021)

  • Aggressive global expansion led to unsustainable debt
  • Core aviation business destroyed by COVID-19
  • Failed diversification into unrelated businesses
  • Shows how rapid expansion without core competency leads to value destruction

Anbang Insurance (2018)

  • Aggressive overseas asset purchases at premium valuations
  • Insurance premium funded investment model collapsed
  • Government takeover after value destruction
  • Demonstrates how regulatory changes can destroy business models

B. India

Jet Airways (2019)

  • Market share erosion from low-cost carriers
  • Unable to maintain premium positioning
  • Cost structure became unsustainable
  • Shows how competitive disruption destroys value

Kingfisher Airlines (2012)

  • Failed acquisition of Air Deccan
  • Inability to manage dual-brand strategy
  • Fuel cost volatility impact
  • Illustrates how poor strategic decisions accelerate value destruction

C. Indonesia

Garuda Indonesia (2021)

  • Legacy cost structure
  • Government support masked fundamental issues
  • COVID-19 exposed structural weaknesses
  • Shows how state ownership can delay but not prevent value destruction

Bakrie Group Companies (Multiple Defaults)

  • Commodity price exposure
  • Complex cross-holdings
  • Natural resource depletion
  • Demonstrates cyclical industry risks

D. Singapore/Hong Kong

Pacific Andes (Hong Kong/Singapore, 2016)

  • Fishing quota restrictions impacted core business
  • Supply chain breakdown
  • Working capital cycle collapse
  • Shows how regulatory changes can destroy business value

Hyflux (Singapore, 2019)

  • Technology bet on membrane technology
  • Change in government power purchase agreements
  • Infrastructure project delays
  • Illustrates how public-private partnership risks can destroy value

2. Value Diversion Default

A. China

China Huarong (2021)

  • Related party transactions under Lai Xiaomin
  • Asset quality manipulation
  • Complex shadow banking operations
  • Shows state-owned enterprise governance issues

Founder Group (2020)

  • University-linked conglomerate
  • Complex ownership structure enabled diversion
  • Related party transactions with Peking University
  • Demonstrates public institution governance challenges

B. India

Videocon Group (2018)

  • Related party loans
  • Cross-collateralization across group
  • Promoter pledging issues
  • Shows promoter group complexity issues

Bhushan Steel (2017)

  • Promoter fund diversion
  • Letter of credit fraud
  • Related party transactions
  • Illustrates traditional business group issues

C. Hong Kong/Singapore

China Fishery Group (2016)

  • Related party transactions with Pacific Andes
  • Transfer pricing issues
  • Complex cross-border structure
  • Shows how listed company structures enable diversion

Brightoil Petroleum (Hong Kong, 2019)

  • Trading losses hidden through related parties
  • Margin funding through complex structures
  • Asset transfers to related entities
  • Demonstrates opacity in trading businesses

3. Temporal/Liquidity Default

A. China

Kaisa Group (Multiple Defaults)

  • Maturity mismatch in land banking
  • Regulatory changes affected pre-sales model
  • Cross-border funding challenges
  • Shows Chinese property developer funding model risks

CITIC Guoan (2020)

  • Short-term debt funding long-term investments
  • Pledge share financing risks
  • Conglomerate structure complicated refinancing
  • Illustrates Chinese conglomerate liquidity risks

B. India

DHFL (2019)

  • Asset-liability mismatch in housing finance
  • Wholesale funding dependence
  • Market confidence loss spiral
  • Shows non-bank finance company risks

Reliance Communications (2017)

  • Technology investment timing issues
  • Spectrum payment obligations
  • Working capital cycle breakdown
  • Demonstrates telecom sector timing risks

C. Singapore/Hong Kong

MAS Holdings (Singapore, 1985)

  • Pan-Electric Crisis
  • Forward contract obligations
  • Market closure impact
  • Historical case showing systemic risk

Peregrine Fixed Income (Hong Kong, 1998)

  • Asian financial crisis impact
  • Indonesian exposure
  • Short-term funding model
  • Shows investment bank liquidity risks

Asian Cross-Cutting Themes

1. Business Group Structures

  • Family-controlled conglomerates common
  • Complex cross-shareholdings
  • Internal capital markets
  • Multiple listed entities

2. State Involvement

  • Direct ownership influence
  • Policy-driven lending
  • Implicit guarantees
  • Regulatory relationship management

3. Relationship-Based Banking

  • Connected party lending
  • Group-based credit assessment
  • Informal workout preferences
  • Personal guarantee reliance

4. Corporate Governance Patterns

  • Concentrated ownership
  • Related party transactions
  • Minority shareholder issues
  • Board independence challenges

5. Regional Variations

China

  • State ownership influence
  • Policy-driven defaults
  • Cross-border complexity
  • Property sector concentration

India

  • Promoter group issues
  • Public sector bank dominance
  • NCLT resolution process
  • Group guarantee complications

Southeast Asia

  • Family business groups
  • Cross-border operations
  • Currency mismatch issues
  • Different legal frameworks

6. Industry Patterns

  • Property developers: Timing mismatch
  • Commodities: Value destruction
  • Financial services: Information asymmetry
  • Manufacturing: Working capital issues

7. Resolution Frameworks

  • China: State-led resolution
  • India: IBC process
  • Singapore: Scheme of arrangement
  • Hong Kong: Provisional liquidation

8. Creditor Behavior

  • Domestic bank syndication
  • International bond markets
  • Trade credit patterns
  • Informal workouts preference

9. Information Quality

  • Related party disclosure
  • Audit quality variations
  • Regulatory reporting
  • Market communication practices

10. Cultural Factors

  • Face-saving reorganizations
  • Group loyalty influence
  • Relationship preservation
  • Social impact consideration

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